"This volume addresses these needs. Chapters 1 and 2 set the stage: uncertainty is everywhere in clinical practice, yet clinical reasoning depends on logical deduction as exemplified by differential diagnosis. Chapters 3, 4, and 5 are about defining and navigating uncertainty: determining probability, updating probability, and the determinants of post-test probability, all basic tools of the clinician. Chapters 6 and 7 are about modeling the factors that shape decisions. Chapters 8-12 explore in-depth the measurement of utility, both the basics and the underlying theory. Topics include attitudes toward taking risks, the quality of life, and the length of life. The last three chapters are about making decisions: deciding when to treat, when to test, and when to wait (Chapter 13); the advanced modeling methods that inform policy. (Chapter 14); and cost-effectiveness analysis (Chapter 15)"-- Provided by publisher.